Redistricting Reform on November Ballot

FairVote.org: "On November 2, the voters will have to opportunity to speak on two drastically different ballot measures concerning this Commission. Proposition 20 would extend the power of the Citizens Redistricting Committee by giving them power to draw Congressional districts as well, while Proposition 27 would eliminate the redistricting Commission entirely. There has been no polling available on these measures, and debate about them has been largely drowned out by the high-profile and expensive campaigns for governor, U.S. Senator and other controversial ballot measures."

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Competitiveness in national elections does not trickle down to state level

Ballotnews: "77.3% of incumbents faced no primary challenger. Of the 1,133 incumbents who did face a primary, only 95 were defeated by the challenger. Thus, 91.6% of all incumbents who faced a primary opponent won their primary. But, if all 4,985 incumbents who elected to run for re-election are counted, only 1.9% of incumbents did not make it to the general election."

2009 Reapportionment Analysis Released by Election Data Services

EDS: New Census Bureau population estimates released today show new changes are likely for three more states in their congressional representation, with major emphasis on loses in the Midwest and gains in the South and Far West, compared to last year’s population release. However, trends contained in the new data point towards more twists in population growth over the remaining nine months between the date of the data and Census day on April 1, 2010. The trends lead to a variety of potential scenarios by the time apportionment happens in 2010.

Overall, the new 2009 estimates show that ten congressional seats in 17 states have already changed at this point in the decade, if a new apportionment was made with the updated numbers. Seven states—Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington— would each gain a seat and Texas would gain three seats if the U.S. House of Representatives were reapportioned with census population estimates for July 1, 2009, according to Election Data Services’ analysis. Eight states would lose single seats— Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania, while the state of Ohio now stands to lose two seats.

Full report is here.

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• Winners and Losers in Reapportionment (thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com)
• Lone Star State to pick up 3 seats (politico.com)
• Report: Fla. adds 2 seats, N.Y. loses (politico.com)